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Thunderbolts Opens Soft at Box Office, Rebrands as ‘New Avengers’ Amid Performance Concerns
Reports indicate that Marvel Studios’ Thunderbolts film has opened with disappointing box office numbers, posting the second-lowest opening weekend for an MCU film in history. The estimated domestic opening stands at $76 million from 4,300 theaters, slightly ahead of expectations for a film featuring lesser-known characters, but the global start of $162.1 million (including $86 million overseas) is considered soft.
With a reported production budget of $180 million and an additional $100 million spent on marketing, the film’s total cost is estimated around $280 million. Our analysis suggests the movie needs to gross between $500 million and $600 million worldwide to break even, due to theaters keeping roughly half of the ticket revenue. Based on its opening, the film appears likely to lose at least $100 million for Disney unless it demonstrates exceptionally strong performance in subsequent weeks, known as having “crazy long legs”. The crucial second weekend will be a major test of its staying power.
In a move described as a “desperate move” and “nonsense”, Marvel has reportedly begun rebranding the film as New Avengers in some markets, with billboards in places like Thailand showing the name change. This change comes quickly after the movie’s opening and is seen by some as an attempt to improve box office performance following the soft debut. The cast of Thunderbolts reportedly revealed the name change after billboards were altered. However, the rebranding has also been met with negative reactions online, with some calling it “cringe” and expressing a desire for the original Avengers cast instead of “these trash posers”. Given the ensemble of characters, some consider them a “rag tag bunch of people to be considered Avengers”. It is unclear if the title will be changed in theaters.
Interestingly, despite the low box office turnout, reports on audience and critical reception for Thunderbolts are largely positive among those who have seen it. The film boasts an 88% critic score and an exceptionally high 95% audience score on Rotten Tomatoes. This audience score is notable, being the third highest for any title in the MCU, behind only Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (98%) and Spider-Man: No Way Home (97%). For comparison, Avengers: Endgame reportedly had a 90% audience score. PostTrak exit polls show audiences gave the film a rave 4.5 out of 5 stars and an A- CinemaScore. The audience demographic for Thunderbolts also reportedly skewed less male than many previous Marvel titles, playing to an ethnically diverse audience.
The plot of Thunderbolts involves Julia Louis-Dreyfus’s character positioning MCU “loners and rejects” to eliminate each other, but they instead decide to team up after recognizing a setup, joined by a newcomer who suffers from mental illness exacerbated by experimentation.
The disconnect between positive reception and low attendance highlights a potential challenge for Marvel. Sources suggest that while the movie itself is viewed favorably by those who see it, audiences are seemingly unwilling to pay theater prices. This situation is seen by some as a consequence of Marvel having become “commoditized” since Endgame, with new releases viewed as “Marvel slop” that doesn’t offer anything significantly new. Some argue that a broader “Marvel fatigue” has set in, potentially worsened by the volume of content on Disney+.
Comparisons to other recent films are telling; for instance, Deadpool & Wolverine opened significantly higher at $211 million. It’s suggested that a large percentage of those who saw Deadpool & Wolverine did not attend Thunderbolts. The argument is made that Thunderbolts features lesser-known characters compared to Deadpool & Wolverine‘s popular leads or even Guardians of the Galaxy, which opened higher ($127 million adjusted for inflation) despite also featuring a less-established team at the time. Questions have been raised about why characters like the Winter Soldier were not more central to the Thunderbolts lineup.
Overall, the situation underscores difficulties Marvel faces post-Endgame, even when producing films reportedly considered “good” by viewers. Some sources suggest significant changes are needed at Marvel Studios. Reducing production budgets is proposed as one potential solution to make films profitable even with lower box office returns.
