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Data Confronts Narrative: Statistics Reveal Disparities in Crime Rates Across Groups

In a recent public exchange that we witnessed, the discussion around crime statistics and their relationship to ethnic and religious groups proved challenging for some, highlighting a clear divide between data and preferred narratives. At the heart of the confrontation was the crucial concept of “per capita” – a metric that, when applied to demographic data, appears to be profoundly uncomfortable for those who dismiss disparities based on raw numbers alone.

The assertion was made, supported by statistics, that certain ethnicities are indeed more likely to commit crimes. This perspective is often met with the social justice counter-argument claiming that any observed disparities are due to systemic racism or poverty, rather than inherent group propensity. However, we contend that the systemic racism argument rings less true in the present day, and the poverty explanation has been long debunked, as evidenced by groups like poor Asians who do not exhibit higher crime rates despite economic hardship.

During the debate, a journalist insisted there was no evidence whatsoever that any ethnicity commits more crime than another. When pressed to define what evidence would look like, they struggled, seemingly aware that the only possible answer — statistics — would put them in an untenable position. The reality is, evidence does exist in the form of official government statistics on crime and prison populations, particularly when examined per capita.

Examining the data for the UK, the disparities become starkly apparent when comparing general population percentages to prison population percentages:

• White individuals make up the majority of the general population at 81.7% but are underrepresented in prisons at 71.8%.
• Black individuals constitute just 4% of the general population but account for a disproportionate 12.1% of the prison population, meaning they are massively overrepresented, nearly triple their per capita rate.
• Asian individuals are 9% of the population and make up 8% of the prison population, roughly in line with their proportion.
• Mixed ethnic groups are 2.9% of the population but nearly 5% of the prison population, almost double their per capita rate.

It appears some may not fully grasp the meaning of “overrepresented” or “per capita,” suggesting confusion arises when presented with these facts. For instance, while a majority of people in UK prisons are white in absolute numbers, they are underrepresented relative to their share of the general population. Conversely, Black individuals are significantly overrepresented.

Religious demographics in UK prisons also show notable differences:

• Christians are underrepresented, making up 46.2% of the population but 44.6% of prisoners.
• Those with No religion and/or other beliefs are also underrepresented (37% population, 33% prison).
• Muslims are significantly overrepresented, being just 6% of the population but nearly 20% of the prison population.
• Buddhists are overrepresented (0.5% population, 2% prison).
• Jewish people are roughly in line with their population percentage (0.5% population, 0.57% prison).

Looking across the Atlantic, US data from 2019 shows similar patterns. While comprising about 12.4% of the population, Black individuals represented 27% of criminal charges. They are particularly overrepresented in charges for serious crimes, accounting for 52% of charges for taking another person’s life, 53% of robberies, and 42% of weapons charges. In contrast, Asians represent around 1.3% of the population and their crime rates appear generally in line with this, except perhaps for certain specific offenses. White individuals are overrepresented in certain petty crimes like curfew and loitering.

We maintain that the focus should shift from inherent racial propensity, which we do not believe is the cause, to cultural factors. It is not racist to highlight that growing up in parts of certain cultures may glorify crime or gang culture, contributing to these disparities. This cultural explanation, rather than race itself, or debunked arguments like systemic racism or poverty, is a critical area that needs open discussion to address the problem effectively. Unfortunately, resisting these uncomfortable facts and clinging to narratives that lack statistical support only leads to public embarrassment when confronted with the data.